Ep 1. US Dollar and Commodity Trades from Robert Desmond on Vimeo.
This video reviews the chart pattern set up on the US Dollar, Gold, Silver and the gold mining names. We will be sending out trade alerts to our members.
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hi folks about Desmond over the
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contrarian trader I’m taping this on
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Tuesday night remember the first so I’m
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kind of putting myself out there with
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this analysis in advance of the markets
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not being open and unaware of where the
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market will be trading i have this time
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to automatically gets sent out at noon
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on eastern standard time in advance of
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the Federal Reserve meeting which I
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really don’t expect much to happen but
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there are trades out there to be had
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because I think there’s a fairly seismic
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shift that’s going on and I’ve been
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speaking about this with members for
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quite some time
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we’re really in unprecedented times and
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what I think is going to come back
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around again are the trades in the
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commodity space because inflation is on
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the rise we have stagflation I’ve been
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talking about stagflation for quite some
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time now and you can even go back on
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youtube i posted a video several weeks
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ago about stagflation nobody else is
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talking about it and now it’s our
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doorstep so we have the US dollar which
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is a very strong second half of 2016
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it broke out back in October but last
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week the shares began to break down to
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the UUP the bull tracking fun for the US
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dollar and today we bounced off of
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critical support now why is critical and
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why does this matter
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the dollar what I’m talking about
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commodities because commodities and the
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gold stocks they trade inversely of the
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US dollars when the dollar goes down
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gold silver the gold stocks they move
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higher and when you overlay the US
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dollar and gold you can see that it’s
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exactly the inverse every once in awhile
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they trade in tandem
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but it is truly the exception that that
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happens so the US dollar downslope of
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critical support which was the pivot
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point back in july for this double
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bottom breakout and we pierced and
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closed above it in early October and
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here we are we’ve retraced the entire
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move back down to the pivot point so
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critical
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or because we know from technical
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analysis that if you get a break down
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below a prior breakout point that’s a
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breakout point failure or a bull trap
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meeting the shares did not have the
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institutional support to keep it above a
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breakout point so it’s critical that the
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UUP of the US dollar hold today’s lowes
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now what do i think is going to benefit
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in the coming days let’s go over gold
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the gld it broke out today above the
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upper band of its rising uptrend shadow
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I was never a big fan of this uptrend
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channel was more of an ascending wedge
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formation to me and I was more concerned
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about a breakdown in the short term and
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then a reversal back i had expected a
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retrace down to the 118 level and I’m
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not entirely convinced that we won’t get
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that yet but it’s looking better for
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gold I must say that given the
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performance of the US dollar do i
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believe the US dollar is going to go
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straight down
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no i do not think they gonna put up a
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defense so in the short charm as that
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defense gets put up i’m going to look
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for a pullback on gold and quite
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possibly a filling of today’s gap but
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what does that mean it means that we
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will have a failed to break out unless
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of course we have a very very strong
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down morning or and early afternoon and
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then rally back to close above the
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support level that would be huge huge
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buy signal but it’s also asking a lot
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also keep an eye that we closed below
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but we hit today the third standard
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deviation volunteer event we’re very
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close so the chart is looking better but
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I’m not ready yet to go jumping in and
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buying gold but soon
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volume very strong silver I own silver
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in a leveraged etf it popped higher
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today I did not add more and you can see
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that we bounced right off of the
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declining 50-day moving average that’s a
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declining ceiling so it’s going to be
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difficult for silver to get through it
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so what am I expecting probably of Paul
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back and a refill of the gap the GTX
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very similar price action to what we saw
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on silver believe it or not rather than
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gold
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the shares rallied hire out of this bull
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flag formation but bounced off of its
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50-day moving average which is beginning
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to flatten out some we are already long
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of the gold-mining names and i will be
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sending out alerts to members when we
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build on our car position we are not
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currently long of gold but we will be
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looking to open a new position and with
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silver I’m long of a leveraged etf which
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puts you three times long of silver and
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will be looking to build on that
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position but a good wrist reward entry
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point all the indicators on these charts
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are looking strong now to matter of is
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this rally in the short term for real
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and also is the dollar pull back just
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that a pullback well today support level
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hold and we rally back to make new highs
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i don’t think that we will I think the
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odds favor the Long’s in the commodity
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trade and the dollar is looking as
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strong as it once did several weeks ago
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when everybody thought we were going to
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have further tightening over in Europe
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and that doesn’t appear to be the case
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so members more to come and we’ll see
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how my analysis plays out after the
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Federal Reserve meeting what do I expect
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there tomorrow I expected typical
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knee-jerk reaction which is generally
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wrong by the market
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I don’t expect a Fed move and if
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anything I think they’ll sound fairly
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dovish because the federal reserve wants
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Hillary and they want the market to
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rally it does them no good having the
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markets in freefall heading into an
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election so if anything I think that
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they will be double switch is bearish
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for the dollar bullish for gold silver
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and the gold stocks members more
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tomorrow
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