MGM Stock Crashed 45%: Buy Now or Wait?

MGM stock has fallen off a cliff. Shares are down about 45% from their highs, the Barry Diller deal has collapsed, and the daily RSI just closed at 13.66, a level you almost never see on a major casino operator.

So is the house finally offering you a good bet, or is this the hand where you lose the whole stack?

If You’re Holding MGM Stock Right Now

If you’ve held through each rally and watched every one of them fade, you know the feeling. The headlines make it sound like the smart money already left the table, and your gut is split down the middle. One side says get out before it gets worse. The other says it’s too beaten up to ignore.

Don’t feel bad. I felt the same way in my early trading days. Here’s what I can tell you: this chart is providing opportunity. But it demands patience, because in all probability, MGM is going lower first.

Why Oversold Doesn’t Mean “Buy Now”

If you’re a speculator or long-term buyer, it’s tempting to look at an RSI below 20 and think, “This is cheap. I should buy right here.”

I’d caution against it. I’ve been doing this for over 25 years, and one lesson keeps repeating: weak stocks tend to get weaker.

An extremely oversold reading usually sets up a short-covering rally, not a durable bottom. Don’t be surprised to see MGM’s RSI hit 10 or lower before this is over, especially with the broader market showing signs of rolling over.

And if you’re buying MGM stock now and can’t sleep at night, you’re too big.

The Market Backdrop Matters

The Nasdaq hit new all-time highs not long ago, but only on the backs of a few stocks. When too few names drive a market higher, the structure underneath is weak. If the overall market rolls over, expect more weakness in names like MGM.

Where to Find Real Support for MGM Stock

You won’t find meaningful support on a daily chart, and you certainly won’t find it on a 15-minute chart. The daily MGM chart shows topping action and, in my view, is pointing to a break lower.

Real historical support lives on the weekly and monthly charts. That’s where I identify the price levels where I’d begin building a position, and that’s the analysis I share with members.

How I Scale Into a Beaten-Down Stock

Reaching a price target doesn’t mean I go all in. Say my intended position is 1,000 shares of MGM. I don’t buy 1,000 shares at my first level. That’s crazy town.

Instead:

1. Start small. I buy 200 shares maximum at the first support level.
2. Watch whether support holds.
3. Watch weekly volume. Is down volume drying up on the weekly time frame? Daily volume is already dropping, which is why MGM is on my radar, but the weekly is what matters.
4. Add only when conditions confirm.

The Conditions I Need Before I Begin Bull Operations

Before I commit capital to MGM stock, I want answers to these questions:

• RSI: Is it below 20? (It is. Closing RSI is 13.66.)
• Volume: Is selling volume declining on the weekly chart?
• Options positioning: Are options traders leaning bullish, bearish, or neutral?
• Short interest: How heavily is MGM shorted?
• Days to cover: How long would it take shorts to exit?

Volume matters most. Ignore it, and you’re trading blind.

Is MGM Stock a Buy?

Not yet. MGM is a top-tier name, and this kind of washout can create real opportunity. But opportunity rewards patience and discipline, not bravery. The goal is to let the stock come to your levels and prove itself before you size up.

Get My MGM Price Targets and Trade Alerts

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